🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

However the current field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent strugglers ascending together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still