Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."